Threshold Regression for Survival Analysis: Modeling Event Times by a Stochastic Process Reaching a Boundary

Many researchers have investigated first hitting times as models for survival data. First hitting times arise naturally in many types of stochastic processes, ranging from Wiener processes to Markov chains. In a survival context, the state of the underlying process represents the strength of an item or the health of an individual. The item fails or the individual experiences a clinical endpoint when the process reaches an adverse threshold state for the first time. The time scale can be calendar time or some other operational measure of degradation or disease progression. In many applications, the process is latent (i.e., unobservable). Threshold regression refers to first-hitting-time models with regression structures that accommodate covariate data. The parameters of the process, threshold state and time scale may depend on the covariates. This paper reviews aspects of this topic and discusses fruitful avenues for future research.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000330 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Remote sensing program activity report

Major accomplishments in an effort to encourage investigation and technology transfer for practical applications of remote sensing to solve Earth resources problems in Vermont include: (1) acquisition, installation, and operation of the ORSER digital processing system on the University's IBM 3031 computer; (2) acquisition and operation of printing and CRT computer terminals for remote access to computer facilities for analysis of remotely sensed digital tape; (3) acquisition and operation of optical interpretation and image transfer devices for use with all types of aerial photography; (4) development of audio visual and other training materials for use in presentations, workshops, and short courses to enhance technology transfer; and (5) cooperation government agencies in demonstration projects to show the feasibility of using remote sensing technology

Is it possible to increase the sustainability of arable and ruminant agriculture by reducing inputs?

Until recently, agricultural production was optimised almost exclusively for profit but now farming is under pressure to meet environmental targets. A method is presented and applied for optimising the sustainability of agricultural production systems in terms of both economics and the environment. Components of the agricultural production chain are analysed using environmental life-cycle assessment (LCA) and a financial value attributed to the resources consumed and burden imposed on the environment by agriculture, as well as to the products. The sum of the outputs is weighed against the inputs and the system considered sustainable if the value of the outputs exceeds those of the inputs. If this ratio is plotted against the sum of inputs for all levels of input, a diminishing returns curve should result and the optimum level of sustainability is located at the maximum of the curve. Data were taken from standard economic almanacs and from published LCA reports on the extent of consumption and environmental burdens resulting from farming in the UK. Land-use is valued using the concept of ecosystem services. Our analysis suggests that agricultural systems are sustainable at rates of production close to current levels practiced in the UK. Extensification of farming, which is thought to favour non-food ecosystem services, requires more land to produce the same amount of food. The loss of ecosystem services hitherto provided by natural land brought into production is greater than that which can be provided by land now under extensive farming. This loss of ecosystem service is large in comparison to the benefit of a reduction in emission of nutrients and pesticides. However, food production is essential, so the coupling of subsidies that represent a relatively large component of the economic output in EU farming, with measures to reduce pollution are well-aimed. Measures to ensure that as little extra land is brought into production as possible or that marginal land is allowed to revert to nature would seem to be equally well-aimed, even if this required more intensive use of productive areas. We conclude that current arable farming in the EU is sustainable with either realistic prices for products or some degree of subsidy and that productivity per unit area of land and greenhouse gas emission (subsuming primary energy consumption) are the most important pressures on the sustainability of farming

The Globular Cluster Systems around NGC 3311 and NGC 3309

We present extensive new photometry in (g',i') of the large globular cluster (GC) system around NGC 3311, the central cD galaxy in the Hydra cluster. Our GMOS data cover a 5.5' field of view and reach a limiting magnitude i' = 26, about 0.5 magnitude fainter than the turnover point of the GC luminosity function. We find that NGC 3311 has a huge population of ~16, 000 GCs, closely similar to the prototypical high specific frequency Virgo giant M87. The color-magnitude distribution shows that the metal-poor blue GC sequence and the metal-richer red sequence are both present, with nearly equal numbers of clusters. Bimodal fits to the color distributions confirm that the blue sequence shows the same trend of progressively increasing metallicity with GC mass that has previously been found in many other large galaxies; the correlation we find corresponds to a scaling of GC metallicity with mass of Z ~ M^0.6 . By contrast, the red sequence shows no change of mean metallicity with mass, but it shows an upward extension to much higher than normal luminosity into the UCD-like range, strengthening the potential connections between massive GCs and UCDs. The GC luminosity function, which we measure down to the turnover point at M_I = -8.4, also has a normal form like those in other giant ellipticals. Within the Hydra field, another giant elliptical NGC 3309 is sitting just 100" from the cD NGC 3311. We use our data to solve simultaneously for the spatial structure and total GC populations of both galaxies at once. Their specific frequencies are S_N (NGC 3311) = 12.5 +/- 1.5 and S_N (NGC 3309) = 0.6 +/-0.4. NGC 3311 is completely dominant and entirely comparable with other cD-type systems such as M87 in Virgo.Comment: 15 pages, 15 figures. Accepted to the Astrophysical Journal. Version with higher resolution figures is available at http://www.thewehners.net/astro/papers/wehner_n3311_highres.pd

Imaging of the Merging Galaxy NGC 3597 and its Population of Proto--Globular Clusters

We present wide field-of-view near-infrared imaging from the NTT and very deep optical imaging from the HST of the young merging galaxy NGC 3597. The morphology of the galaxy and the properties of the newly formed proto-globular clusters (PGCs) are examined. Our K band data reveals the presence of a second nucleus, which provides further evidence that NGC 3597 is the result of a recent merger. Combining new K band photometry with optical photometry, we are able for the first time to derive a unique age for the newly formed PGCs of a few Myrs. This is consistent with the galaxy starburst age of < 10 Myrs. From deep HST imaging, we are able to probe the luminosity function ~8 magnitudes fainter than normal, old globular clusters, and confirm that the PGCs have a power-law distribution with a slope of ~-2.Comment: 19 pages, Latex, 10 figures, 4 tables, accepted by MNRA

The Star Cluster Population of M51: II. Age distribution and relations among the derived parameters

We use archival {\it Hubble Space Telescope} observations of broad-band images from the ultraviolet (F255W-filter) through the near infrared (NICMOS F160W-filter) to study the star cluster population of the interacting spiral galaxy M51. We obtain age, mass, extinction, and effective radius estimates for 1152 star clusters in a region of $\sim 7.3 \times 8.1$ kpc centered on the nucleus and extending into the outer spiral arms. In this paper we present the data set and exploit it to determine the age distribution and relationships among the fundamental parameters (i.e. age, mass, effective radius). Using this dataset we find: {\it i}) that the cluster formation rate seems to have had a large increase $\sim$ 50-70 Myr ago, which is coincident with the suggested {\it second passage} of its companion, NGC 5195, {\it ii}) a large number of extremely young ($<$ 10 Myr) star clusters, which we interpret as a population of unbound clusters of which a large majority will disrupt within the next $\sim$10 Myr, and {\it iii)} that the distribution of cluster sizescan be well approximated by a power-law with exponent, $-\eta = -2.2 \pm 0.2$, which is very similar to that of Galactic globular clusters, indicating that cluster disruption is largely independent of cluster radius. In addition, we have used this dataset to search for correlations among the derived parameters. In particular, we do not find any strong trends between the age and mass, mass and effective radius, nor between the galactocentric distance and effective radius. There is, however, a strong correlation between the age of a cluster and its extinction, with younger clusters being more heavily reddened than older clusters.Comment: 21 pages, 20 figures, accepted A&

Globular Cluster Systems in Brightest Cluster Galaxies: Bimodal Metallicity Distributions and the Nature of the High-Luminosity Clusters

We present new (B,I) photometry for the globular cluster systems in eight Brightest Cluster Galaxies (BCGs), obtained with the ACS/WFC camera on the Hubble Space Telescope. In the very rich cluster systems that reside within these giant galaxies, we find that all have strongly bimodal color distributions All the BCGs show population gradients, with much higher relative numbers of red clusters within 5 kpc of their centers, consistent with their having formed at later times than the blue, metal-poor population. A striking new feature of the color distributions emerging from our data is that for the brightest clusters (M_I < -10.5) the color distribution becomes broad and less obviously bimodal. we suggest that it may be a characteristic of many BCGs. Furthermore, the blue (metal-poor) clusters become progressively redder with increasing luminosity, following a mass/metallicity scaling relation Z ~ M^0.55. We argue that these GCS characteristics are consistent with a hierarchical-merging formation picture in which the metal-poor clusters formed in protogalactic clouds or dense starburst complexes with gas masses in the range 10^7 - 10^10 M_Sun, but where the more massive clusters on average formed in bigger clouds with deeper potential wells where more pre-enrichment could occur.Comment: 48 pages, 24 Figures, PDF, Submitted to Astrophys.J. and refereed. For complete pdf file with better figures, see: http://physwww.mcmaster.ca/%7Eharris/Preprints.htm

Probing small-x parton densities in proton- proton (-nucleus) collisions in the very forward direction

We present calculations of several pp scattering cross sections with potential applications at the LHC. Significantly large rates for momentum fraction, x, as low as 10^-7 are obtained, allowing for possible extraction of quark and gluon densities in the proton and nuclei down to these small x values provided a detector with good acceptance at maximal rapidities is used.Comment: 14 pages, LaTeX, 12 figures, uses revtex.st

Gaps present a trade-off between dispersal and establishment that nourishes species diversity

We took advantage of two natural experiments to investigate processes that regulate tree recruitment in gaps. In the first, we examined the recruitment of small and large saplings and trees into 31 gaps resulting from treefalls occurring between 1984 and 2015 in the 2.25-ha core area of a 4-ha tree plot at Cocha Cashu in Peru. In the second, we identified the tallest saplings recruiting into 69 gaps created during a violent wind storm in February 2000. In the established tree plot, we were able to compare the composition of saplings in the disturbance zones of gaps prior to, during, and subsequent to the period of gap formation. Recruitment in gaps was compared with that in "nofall" zones, areas within the plot that had not experienced a treefall at least since the early 1980s. Our results confirmed earlier findings that a consistently high proportion (~60%) of established saplings survived gap formation. Light demanding species, as proxied by mortality rates, recruited under all conditions, but preferentially during periods of gap formation, a pattern that was especially strong among gap pioneers. Similar results were noted, separately, for small and large saplings and trees recruiting at >= 10 cm dbh. One hundred percent of previously untagged trees recruiting into gaps in the first post-disturbance census were gap pioneers, suggesting rapid development. This conclusion was strongly supported in a follow-up survey taken of 69 gaps 19 months after they had been synchronously created in a wind storm. Ten species of gap pioneers, eight of which are not normally present in the advance regeneration, had attained heights of 6-10 m in 19 months. The 10 gap pioneers were dispersed, variously, by primates, bats, birds, and wind and reached maximum frequency in different-sized gaps (range 1,000 m(2)). Both gap size and limited dispersal of zoochorous species into gaps serve as filters for establishment, creating a complex mosaic of conditions that enhances species diversity